Ten Points Is Not a Wall

A 10-point gap is a to-do list

At least nine Black nominees are on the November ballot for the U.S. Senate, from Florida to Wyoming. Most of the pundit class has already written them off. They are reading the polls wrong.

A 10-point gap in October is not a verdict. It is a to-do list. Close races are decided by who knocks the extra door, funds the last ad flight, and drives the last carload of voters to the polls. Three campaigns show exactly why we cannot look away.

Florida: Angie Nixon is in a dead heat

In mid-September, St. Pete Polls found Angie Nixon tied with Sen. Ashley Moody, 45 to 45. Other September polls put Moody ahead by 7 to 11 points. That spread is not a reason for doubt. It is proof the seat is in play.

Florida was supposed to be out of reach. Nixon has turned a special election into a real fight anyway. If national donors keep treating Florida as a lost cause, they are leaving a Senate seat on the table.

Kentucky: Charles Booker is nine points from history

Mitch McConnell's seat is open for the first time in four decades. A late-August Global Strategy Group poll had Rep. Andy Barr at 49 percent and Charles Booker at 40, with 11 percent undecided.

Read that again. Barr is under 50 in Kentucky. That number comes from a Democratic pollster, and Booker still has to win most of the undecided voters. But he built his name on Hood to the Holler, a campaign for the voters both parties stopped visiting. Nine points is a gap that organizing closes.

Illinois: Juliana Stratton is the seat we cannot take for granted

Juliana Stratton is the safest bet on this list, and that is the danger. Illinois has sent one Black woman to the U.S. Senate, Carol Moseley Braun. Stratton can be the second. No public poll has yet tested her against Republican Don Tracy, and safe seats get lost when people assume they are safe.

A big win in Chicago, the south suburbs and Metro East does more than hold Illinois. It shows the country what Black voter power looks like when it shows up in full.

Momentum is a choice

Ten points sounds like a wall. It is not. An October poll measures where a race stands, not where it ends. Momentum comes from money, volunteers and turnout, and all three are still up for grabs.

So here is the ask. Give to Black Progress PAC and we will put it to work in races like these. Make calls into Florida and Kentucky. Make sure every voter you know in Illinois has a plan to vote. In 29 days we find out whether we treated these races as long shots or as the openings they are.

Kolbey Gardner is the founder and president of Black Progress PAC.